Africa and the global minerals race, China’s rare earth controls reshape the strategic landscape

05 NOV 2025

Africa and the global minerals race, China’s rare earth controls reshape the strategic landscape

China’s recent restrictions on rare earth exports have intensified global tensions and accelerated the race to secure alternative sources of critical minerals. The new rules, which require foreign companies to obtain Beijing’s approval before exporting products containing even trace amounts of Chinese rare earths, underscore China’s readiness to wield its dominance in the sector for strategic and geopolitical advantage. The move unsettled markets and triggered swift reactions from the US and Europe. Washington warned of countermeasures, while European leaders accused China of weaponising trade dependencies. US Treasury officials described the policy as “a bazooka pointed at the supply chains of the free world,” stressing the risks to industries dependent on rare earths for technologies like electric vehicles and wind turbines.

China’s dominance over the global rare earth supply chain stems from decades of planning, controlling about 70% of global mining and over 90% of processing and magnet production. Some analysts view the export curbs as a show of strength, while others interpret them as a sign of economic strain. The restrictions have spurred countries to diversify. India is exploring ferrite-based magnets, Taiwan is expanding domestic recycling, and Australia’s critical mineral producers have surged on expectations of increased demand. The US has partnered with Australia to strengthen rare earth supplies and previously helped mediate peace between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda to stabilise access to key minerals like cobalt—part of a broader effort to reduce dependency on China. However, establishing new refining and processing capacity will take time, leaving global industries exposed in the short term.

Africa has emerged as a central player in this shifting landscape. The continent holds vast reserves of lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, platinum group metals, and rare earth elements—resources that the IMF estimates could generate $2 trillion over the next 25 years. Yet most of these materials are exported unprocessed, limiting their economic impact. To address this, countries such as Zimbabwe, Tanzania, and Ghana have banned raw lithium exports, while South Africa is positioning itself as a hub for processing battery-grade minerals. New investments are also flowing into Zambia, Mozambique, and Kenya. Infrastructure initiatives, including China’s modernised Tanzania-Zambia Railway and the US-EU-backed Lobito Corridor, highlight growing geopolitical competition over African supply chains.

China’s export curbs may ultimately accelerate diversification, driving investment in refining and manufacturing outside its borders. For African nations, this represents a defining opportunity to capture more value from their resources, strengthen economies, and increase global influence. By building local processing, smelting, and component industries, Africa can transition from being a supplier of raw materials to a key player in the global clean energy and technology economy while also improving social inclusion and equitable development across the continent.

In collaboration with MCB Strategy, Research and Development Team and ETM Group.

For more information, please contact MCB Global Markets Team on [email protected]